Table of Contents
Unemployment, poverty, social unrest xi -- Economic effects of corruption xii -- HIV-AIDS and epidemic disease xii -- Water resources and pollution xii -- Energy consumption and prices xiii -- Fragility of the financial system and state-owned enterprisesxiii -- Possible shrinkage of foreign direct investment xiii -- Conflictual adversities: Taiwan and other potential conflicts xiv -- Acronyms xvii -- Potential adversities confronting China's continued economic growth 1 -- Part I. China's institutional and structural fault lines -- Massive unemployment and rural poverty -- Economic effects of corruption -- Part II. Sectoral fault lines -- Epidemic disease: a wild card in China's economic future? -- China's health progress since the liberationo: a long march against infectious and parasitic disease -- China's current health profile in international and geographic perspective -- Prospects for epidemic disease in contemporary China : the risks of behavior-born communicable illnesses -- Modeling possibletrajectories for an HIV epidemic in China -- Economic implications for China of HIV breakout -- Water resources and pollution -- Estimating water supply and demand -- Water resources and regional disparities -- Demand estimation for agriculture, industry, and municipality -- Identifying the impacts of flood, water shortage and pollution on the economy -- Impacts on agriculture -- Impacts on industry, municipal water supply, and public health -- Alternatives to abate the problem, and the expected cost and benefits -- Giant water diversion from South to North -- Water saving technologies and flood control -- A market-approach to demand and pollution management -- Water treatment and recycling -- Economic and security implications -- Impact of water problems on productivity, capital and labor -- Security: food sufficiency and regional conflicts -- Future scenarios and possible adversities -- GDP effects of an energy price shock -- Some basic data on the Chinese energy sector and Chinese GDP -- Oil priceeffects of a severe oil supply disruption -- Effects on Chinese GDP -- Oil market effects -- Part II. Financial fault lines -- China's fragile financial system and the state-owned enterprises -- An ineffectual central bank -- A fragile commercial banking system -- Unregulated financial institutions -- Adverse scenarios: financial crises and slacken economic growth -- Possible shrinkage of foreign capital inflows -- Introduction: some relevant background -- What will affect FDI in China in the 2002-2010 period? -- The internal political and economic environment -- External influences on FDI in China.